Hawaii County Weather Forecast for May 19, 2022

Hello

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near shore at 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near shore at about 54 to 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Rather cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near shore at 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Rather cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs of 81 to 86 near shore to about 66 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 75 near shore to about 55 near 5000 feet. Wind northeast around 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

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Friday: Rather cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs of 81 to 86 near shore to about 66 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

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Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. Winds east up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

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Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. Winds east up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near shore to 66 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

big south island

Today: Costs. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Costs. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Rather cloudy. Costs. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near shore at 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

This evening: Rather cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near shore at about 54 to 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Friday: Rather cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near shore at 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Rather cloudy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

This evening: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 69 to 75 near shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Partially sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Synopsis

Persistent clouds and showers will persist across the state today. The threat of flooding and heavy rain is greatest on Kauai, but conditions are expected to improve this afternoon. Brief periods of local heavy rain are possible through Friday across the state. A more typical trade wind pattern is expected by Sunday.

Discussion

The locked front near the western end of the state continues to bring clouds and showers to the area, but most of the showers have moved on. There was a noticeable downward trend in precipitation in Kauai, Oahu and the islands of Maui County overnight. However, the satellite shows another band of clouds northwest of Kauai. The radar doesn’t pick up a lot of showers with this band, especially compared to the area that moved overnight, but the high resolution and global models are all in good agreement with more showers expected.
Knowing that Kauai ground got decent saturation yesterday and last night, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for today. Expect conditions to improve, however with saturated soils, any heavy rain could cause localized problems. Kauai’s overnight sounding shows a substantial decrease in instability, as expected. Still bearing mention of a slight chance of thunderstorms until this morning, but confidence is low that all will depend.
The main area of ​​cloud and rain moved along the island chain and cleared up overnight. Radar shows the rain has eased in this area as it moved over Maui County and the Big Island. Rain gauges in these areas indicate that only a few hundredths of an inch of rain has been received.
I made a few changes to the predictions, but as expected, no noticeable change in the overall philosophy of the predictions with the morning package. As the associated low moves northeastward on Friday, the southern flow can be expected to weaken, giving way to some afternoon sea breezes. Low-level humidity will remain concentrated over Kauai and Oahu, meaning afternoon showers could be heavier than normal at times. Trade winds are expected to return to the eastern half of the state on Saturday and spread to the rest of the state by Saturday evening. Drier trade winds will return early next week as the surface ridge moves west and the upper trough near the islands becomes zonal.

Aviation

A rather diffuse frontal boundary appears to be within 150 nm west-northwest of Kauai early this morning. A northeast-to-southwest trending surface ridge is also found near the large island. The tight pressure gradient between these two features produces strong south to southwest winds over the western islands. This strong flow will continue to carry abundant moisture into the state. This excess humidity combined with unstable weather conditions will support clouds and showers this morning, with the greatest threat of heavy rain and thunderstorms locally near the westernmost islands. The band of layered mid and upper level cloud that was over the Western and Central Islands last night pushed east over Maui and the Big Island early this morning. There is mostly stratiform rain falling from some of these medium and high layered clouds. This band will continue to move eastward today. Additional upper level clouds are also moving from the west over the state, so expect high cloud cover to prevail over many areas this morning.
Local sea breezes are possible over parts of the state this afternoon, especially if medium and high clouds clear up later this morning. This could bring cloud accumulations and showers over some areas, in addition to clouds and showers carried in the deep southern flow. Widespread MVFR conditions remain possible over most of Kauai and Niihau today. Low cloud and showers may also develop in the vicinity of Oahu so periods of MVFR conditions are possible through this afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR conditions may occur over parts of Maui County and the Big Island today.
AIRMET Sierra for Mountain Darkening continues for Kauai and Lanai. This AIRMET may be needed for other islands later today. Additionally, AIRMET Zulu notes that slight TEMPO icing is possible this morning in cloud for the entire area within the 14,500 to 25,000 foot layer.
By tonight, local land breezes may reduce low cloud cover and showers over some of the islands. However, there remains a chance of clouds and showers through Friday morning as the unusually wet conditions will persist, although a gradual stabilization of the atmosphere may begin to develop.

Marine

Strong southerly winds will continue over Kauai waters into today as a slow moving cold front stalls just west of the island of Kauai. These southerly winds and a long period of southerly swells produce rough seas over southerly lee waters near Kauai and Niihau that are normally sheltered during a typical trade wind weather pattern. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters around Kauai, including the Kauai Canal, throughout the afternoon. Expect locally stronger winds and seas near heavy showers and thunderstorms. The latest indications from the model show that the front is weakening as it lifts northward later in the evening with a sharp drop in expected southerly wind speeds. The SCA will likely be dropped for western waters near Kauai by tonight. A high pressure ridge will begin to rebuild over the region on Friday, with trade winds strengthening from east to west across the region throughout the weekend. SCA conditions will likely return to typical windier waters and channels near Maui and Hawaii counties Saturday and Sunday.
Surf heights along south-facing coasts will remain high over the weekend as the current southerly swell strengthens today. Long-term models show quite a bit of activity in the southern hemisphere, which could translate into some surf events on the southern shore over the next week.
The surf along the north and west facing coasts will tend to increase today with the arrival of a small mid-period swell from the northwest (300 to 320 degrees). A return to light summer conditions is expected over the weekend and into the first half of next week as this swell energy subsides.

Watchdogs/Warnings/HFO Advisories

Flood Watch this afternoon for Niihau, Kauai,
Small craft advisory until 6:00 p.m. HST tonight for Northwest Kauai Waters, Windward Waters of Kauai, Leeward Waters of Kauai, Kauai Channel.

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Data reproduced with the kind permission of NOAA.gov