Here’s your weather forecast for Independence Day weekend region by region

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Independence Day weekend is one of the busiest travel times of the year. AAA predicts around 48 million people will travel for the holiday weekend festivities, and the weather will play a crucial role in shaping outdoor plans.

In many places, the big story for the long weekend will be the heat, but some storms will dot the map across the midsection of the country. A few could be fierce, with strong to damaging winds.

An equally dominant headline is the extreme drought gripping the West, with parched vegetation and copious parched fuels turning half of the lower 48 into a virtual powder keg. The incidence of wildfires has historically doubled around Independence Day due to fireworks, and authorities are urging people to avoid setting off fireworks in vulnerable areas.

San Antonio had 17 triple-digit hot days in June. The norm is two.

Here, we’re breaking down your holiday weekend predictions region by region.

The big story for the western United States will be fire danger – both natural and from mishandling fireworks or outdoor fires while camping. That’s thanks to a drought that’s been going on for years and shows no sign of waning in coverage or intensity in the near future. According to the US Drought Monitor, nearly two-fifths of the West is experiencing severe or exceptional drought.

“Tank levels are extremely low; hydroelectric production is limited, alternative energy is expensive; groundwater is decreasing; water allocations to farmers and herders are reduced,” the agency wrote when discussing the impacts of the drought.

Nevada and California are suffering the most right now, and unfortunately no rain is forecast for them over the holiday weekend or into next week. But isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over New Mexico and Colorado from Saturday through Monday, thanks to southwest monsoon moisture.

While some areas could end up with desperately needed rainfall, flooding may accompany some of the heaviest downpours. Elsewhere, lightning strikes from “dry thunderstorms” could spark a few new fires from the southwest to northern Oregon.

Dryness and the presence of dry fuels are particularly problematic in a fireworks setting.

“This holiday weekend, wildland firefighters need your help to prevent wildfires,” wrote the National Interagency Fire Center. “Remember that fireworks have no place in our wild lands. Check local fire restrictions before you go this weekend and stick to them. Remember to never leave your campfire unattended, properly dispose of charcoal from the barbecue, operate equipment safely and avoid malfunctions, and keep vehicles out of the way. dry grass.

From Pennsylvania to Maine, multiple batches of showers and thunderstorms will work north and east into the start of the weekend. Saturday will start wet in western New England, Pennsylvania and New York State. A gap is expected to exist in central New England, but other storms will dot the map during the morning on Long Island, the Connecticut coast, the Cape and the Islands.

Then the atmosphere is expected to recover, with Saturday afternoon temperatures in the 80s in Pennsylvania and New York. Northern and Western New England will be in the 70s behind a collapsing front to the south and east. This front will trigger severe thunderstorms along the Interstate 95 corridor in the late afternoon and evening, with cities like Boston, Providence, Hartford, New York and Newark potentially affected.

Most people find themselves in the comparatively cooler and cooler air mass behind the front on Sunday morning, with bright sunshine and highs in the 70s and below 80s for the most part north of the Mason-Dixon line . The exception will be in central and southern New Jersey, where a few patches of light drizzle or morning cloud cover can be expected.

Independence Day should be nice, with 70s and 80s in the southeast. A few showers could fall at the end of the day over the northern parts of the Champlain Valley and east of the St. Lawrence River.

On Saturday, the same front will bring a few thunderstorms, possibly with strong to locally damaging winds, across western Maryland, Washington and Virginia during the afternoon. There is a low risk of severe weather level 2 out of 5 for Washington, Baltimore and Philadelphia.

Sunday will feature a chance of a low-end thunderstorm in far southern Virginia, but Monday promises to be sunny and dry.

Daily temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

A few afternoon pop-up thunderstorms could occur Saturday, especially in the eastern Carolinas and the Appalachian spine, with more Sunday in the Carolinas and Florida. Monday should be relatively calm. Very isolated thunderstorms could occur in Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana any day depending on how and where the sea breeze sets in.

Saturday’s highs will peak in the mid-90s in the Carolina Coastal Plain and Georgia. The lower 90s will occupy the rest of the South. Sunday will be similar and highs will be a degree or two warmer on Monday 4th.

Across the central and northern plains and the Midwest, “ridge runners” or windy thunderstorms that rise and break through a high-pressure “heat dome” will be possible each day. The high pressure ridge is anchored on the Mississippi valley.

North of the Heat Dome — in Nebraska, the Dakotas, the Upper Midwest, and the Corn Belt — temperatures will be in the 80s. Across Texas and Oklahoma, expect mid-90s to higher with some three-digit temperatures.

Severe thunderstorms could target Kansas City and Des Moines along Interstate 35 on Saturday. Sunday evening there could be a few lines of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds moving across the northern plains. For Monday, only isolated thunderstorms are expected, pouring mostly from the Rocky Mountains onto the High Plains.

Over Alaska, rain showers are likely over southwestern regions through Saturday before becoming more patchy on Sunday and largely dissipating on Monday. Clouds and rain in this area will keep temperatures slightly below normal, mostly in the 50s and 60s.

Much of central and eastern Alaska will be hot and largely dry through Monday, except for a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures here will be up to 5 to 30 degrees warmer than average, in the 70s and 80s – and possibly approaching 90 in a few places on Saturday and Sunday. Much of central and eastern Alaska is under a red flag warning until Saturday for a high fire danger as lightning from thunderstorms combined with dry and windy conditions could ignite rapid new fires.

June wildfires in Alaska break records, fueled by hot, dry weather

In Hawaii, fairly typical summer weather is expected with warm conditions, gusty trade winds and the chance for showers over the holiday weekend.