Weather Alert: Severe Storms Look Likely Monday |

TYLER, Texas (KETK) – Meteorologists with the East Texas Storm Team declared Monday a Severe Weather Alert Day. These days are reserved for times when the highest potential and severe storm coverage is anticipated, and that seems likely for parts of our region. All threats are possible, so it’s important to stay alert and prepare before the storm arrives.

One way to stay ahead of the storm is to use the East Texas Storm Team app. A great resource where you can view Futurecast and set up custom alerts for multiple locations. You will be notified of lightning and storm alerts, rotating thunderstorm threats and personalized messages from our meteorologists. Download for Apple and android devices. Also, having a secondary means of receiving weather information, like a NOAA weather radio.

The Storm Prediction Center covers our entire Level 2 or 3 Severe Hazard Zone. Several severe thunderstorms are possible.


What makes this storm threat worse?

Compared to the last two severe weather events last week, this pattern will have more moisture in the Gulf to work with. This will increase the risk of surface storms. Surface storms have a higher potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.

The set up

A strong upper level low will emerge from the Four Corners area on Monday and help provide upper level support for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Notice the white lines in the image above. These are the altitude winds coming from the southwest. At the surface, southeast winds will not only help introduce moisture to the gulf, but the change in wind speed and direction with height will provide the wind shear needed for severe storms.

The threats

Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main threat, followed by tornadoes. Large hail will also be possible. This system should be an efficient rainmaker, so a minor flash flood cannot be ruled out either.

Time everything

A few showers will be possible Monday morning, but the thunderstorms will start to intensify in the afternoon. During the first half of the afternoon, large hail will be the main threat, as storms during this time will tend to be high.

As we head into the late afternoon storms will begin to concentrate more on the surface and begin to bring a risk of tornadoes and large hail. A line of storms will then develop in the evening through the I-35 corridor and pass through our area overnight. Storms along the line will be capable of gusty winds and 70 mph tornadoes.

The bottom line

Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon through early Tuesday morning. The greatest threat appears to be south of I-20 where storms will have more access to instability. All severe weather modes will be possible, including damaging winds, tornadoes and large hail.

Now is the time to go with your household to where your tornado safe spot is. This safe place should be on the top floor of a sturdy structure, in a room that leaves as many walls as possible between you and the outside world.

A quick word on uncertainty

This storm system is still a few days away, so this forecast may change. Be sure to keep up to date with the latest predictions!

The greatest uncertainty regarding this threat is how far north the best instability will travel. As we continue to get higher resolution data, we will have a better idea of ​​how this storm system will play out.